Signals the election sent
We caught a break, a few month’s worth at least, from all those eyesore political signs — they’ll start popping up with yard sale signs attached to them once everyone does their spring cleaning.
And that’s exactly what the voters in High Springs did to city hall — cleaned it out.
There is a lot to glean from last Tuesday’s results and I’ll try to distill out what I found in the voting data below.
The most unpopular politicians of all time
Bob Barnas, Dean Davis, and Linda Gestrin are all in the running for the fastest fall from popular election to support of less than 1% of the electorate I have ever seen. I haven’t run a poll in the city to give you concrete numbers, but based on the previous two election results, the total lack of public support and the tone of recent meetings, everything these three seem to touch goes down in flames.
Let’s look at three indicators:
- The special election of Scott Jamison
In the Spring of this year, a rare special election was held to fill a vacated High Springs City Commission seat. The Barnas-led majority, who just months earlier hired former office manager and campaign supporter Jeri Langman as permanent city manager, sprung into action to ensure Ann Carter, their handpicked candidate, was elected. They donated, sign-waved, put signs in their yard, and spread the word throughout the community that Carter was their preferred candidate. Carter lost to newcomer Scott Jamison by a crushing 18-point margin.
- Byran Williams defeats Pat Rush
By most measures, Pat Rush, a political newcomer, should have easily won election over former Commissioner and Mayor Byran Williams. Williams has had some reelection trouble in the past, losing two out of three elections over the last three years. Rush claimed experience as the campaign manager for a successful State Representative campaign and his in-laws had congressional campaign experience. But Rush received the endorsement of the current Barnas-led majority, and it cost him — he lost to Williams by over a 10-point margin. - The debt limit amendment is toast
This is perhaps the one piece of victory Barnas and his cronies could claim — a 34-point margin of victory at the ballot box. For a historical perspective, in High Springs voters have approved every single charter amendment placed before them in the last 15 years. So really the only thing you can do wrong is somehow mess up the legal process required to get in on the ballot. Against the advice of their own legal counsel, you guessed it, Barnas, Davis, and Gestrin somehow managed to do just that. In Judge Stan Griffis’ preliminary ruling, he stated the plaintiff in the case (claiming the city illegally passed the amendment) was likely to succeed. In other words, the amendment will not go into effect.
Concerned Citizens for a Better High Springs
One of the interesting anomalies in this election was the formation of the non-political group, Concerned Citizens for a Better High Springs, about two months out from the election date. The group claimed non-profit status and also claimed (and maintained) it was not an ECO (Electioneering Communications Organization) meaning it would not advocate for or against a candidate or ballot item, and thus could avoid election disclosure laws.
Receiving press mentions in The Gainesville Sun, The Observer, and The Alachua Today, the group again stated it’s purpose was to raise awareness but not endorse or support any candidate. They even went as far as to take out an ad in the Today with all the supporters of the group’s names.
So what did this group actually do for the election? Two observations:
- Local turnout was lower than the last presidential election
You could say it’s a symptom of lower overall turnout, but when you boil down to how many people voted on High Springs ballot items, it was a full 10-points lower than the previous comparable election. This broke most trends in terms of it’s severity and scale. It is a very fair assumption to say a group the group’s “Go All The Way” ad campaign to get voters to go to the back of the four-page ballot to vote for local issues was a failure.
- More people voted for/against the charter amendment than did for commissioner
Turnout for the High Springs Commission seat 4 was 71%. Turnout for the High Springs charter amendment was 72.4%. This equates to a nearly one and a half point difference in turnout between the two items. If you’re like me, you’re wondering why in the world a High Springs resident would skip the commission race and vote for the amendment only. Simple; they were doing just what the Concerned Citizens’ ad campaign wanted them to do — flip to the back and vote. Only the group failed to seal the deal and tell them which way to vote.
What’s my take on this?
If you’re going to try to influence political environments, become a political organization. If not, then go have bake sales, volunteer your time in the community, and do some civic good. But don’t parade around as some pseudo-political organization that only muddies the water and confuses people — we have enough of those already.
Sewer is slowly tearing High Springs apart
One of the most interesting things one could gleam from the election results comes from the difference between precincts.
Byran williams enjoyed a 10.5-point margin victory over Pat Rush citywide, but in precinct 60, which holds 40% of High Springs’ 3,700 voters, Williams’ margin of victory shrunk to just under 6-points.
That’s good news and bad news. The good is Williams had a strong, 16.7-point win in the core, older part of town. The bad news is Rush wasn’t too far from victory in the precinct that represents the outlying parts of the city.
I’m a precinct 60 voter, so I can give you the scoop here. The Rush campaign, with the help of wife Robyn Rush, marched through precinct 60 scaring people who aren’t on sewer with falsehoods of the sewer system and Williams’s candidacy. They preached doom and gloom to people of coming sewer-rate apocalypse they have invented. They even cited the City Engineering firm’s report of recommended ~$70 sewer rates as William’s diabolical plan for the city.
And you know what? It was pretty effective.
Rush’s strategy wasn’t too far off from the DNC strategy of the last six years; divide and conquer. Their attempt now is to pit the sewer people against the non-sewer people and ensure victory for their candidates, which they’ve received some short-term success in getting Barnas and Gestrin on the commission.
But Rush’s strategy is short-lived and only works when you have some sort of controlling interest in the media — they don’t — because it’s built upon lies and deception. As cynical as working in the political world can make one, I still believe the good, honest guy (or gal) wins in the end.
Have you ever found yourself wondering exactly why people like Barnas and Rush do what they do? What motivates them to go on witch hunts, trash people’s names, and create overall chaos?
Because it’s made High Springs a risky investment. Try to take inventory on how many residential or commercial developers are interested in High Springs. When’s the last time we had Fortune 100 companies looking to build thousands of jobs into our community like our neighbor city of Alachua has done?
As long as only half of the city is on sewer and fights the remaining half, the elections remain unpredictable and radicals like Barnas and Gestrin get into office, with Rush controlling the political sideshow from behind the scenes.
In a community with chaos at city hall, no economic development happens.
And that’s exactly what no-growthers like Rush and Barnas want.
(Disclaimer: The analysis in this post is based upon unofficial results from the Alachua County Supervisor of Elections office. It is not scientific as the data needed to make it so is not available for up to 45 days after the polls close. The final outcomes and numbers could vary a few percentage points and the analysis above could best be described as “rough”.)
Tagged with: bob barnas • byran williams • dean davis • jeri langman • linda gestrin • pat rush • scott jamison
Eric May
Former elected official Eric May provides readers a view on government they rarely get: one from the inside. Eric currently works for a political consulting firm handling all forms of political media and communications. He is married to his beautiful wife Jenna, who both enjoy serving actively in their church and community.
7 Responses to Signals the election sent
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Eric, The DNC did not divide and conquer. The GOP from Within is in of itself, Divided, Radicalized and, as dirty lemmings as the 2 card carrying members you referenced above.
The DNC has used identity politics to divide the electorate. Exactly what Rush tried to do. Great example. The pigeon hole people and then ostracize them if they don’t vote the way “they were supposed to”.
I think bottom line is moderates and liberals just don’t agree with Tea Party and, Republican politics on any level anymore and, other shift in society see the DNC more invested in people.Less intrusive in personal lives for sure. It will be interesting to see who pigeon holes what minority against the other next election and, if the trends get reversed. It was quite nasty this election and,hands down the white male population was left wondering where their majority is going.
The DNC more in vested in people and less intrusive in personal lives? Let me get this straight, the politics of the Democratic party is less intrusive in peoples lives that other parties? Huh? Have you been in a foreign country for the past 4 years? I’m no big fan of the Republican party these days either but come on…. As far as the white male population, we know where our majority is…. Wearing uniforms and not having their votes counted. Busy “providing the very blanket of freedom that you sleep under.”
First, Yes. We just disagree. Second. No. By choice most in the lower ranks do no lean either party.I’m not sure how the conservitives wanting to require military service as a pathway to citizenship of minorities and, the on record remarks from those disputes that that majority is waning. You know and, how closely your service was followed that is was very much appreciated.Just in case you are wanting to take personal offense about something here. Which I don’t think you did.
Bob Barnas post last night on his web site: New High Springs Commission is set.
Sue Weller Mayor, Scott Jamison Vice Mayor and Byran Williams back and
nothing has changed.
A meeting that opened up with a speech from Byran Williams for a joining of the
community. That was followed immediately by bad mouthing from the Langmans and
this strange lady. Diane Something…
I believe she is the person who threw me the middle finger and seemingly has no
other life than being a blogger on the Eric May thing.
Anyway, this strange lady had an issue with me calling her out. Too bad.”
My issue was not being called out Barnas. My issue is discussed in another thread here and, previously taken from your web site. You stated you got my tag number and,gathered info with it. You can not do that to a law abiding citizen without breaking state and, federal laws. Just what resouces you used and, to clarify if our cities trust was used to do so was my intent in speaking at last nights commission meeting but, you shut that down. I’m sure I am not all alone in saying that now with the lesser significance you have on our city that in instances like this (which you have done time and, again) are nothing more than a sad testiment to who you really are. Man boobs aside. Your more than a jerk. Your a coward and, a disgrace to wear uniform blues. Have a blessed holiday everyone. High Springs just got way more friendly last night:)
Trialbypress.com & trialbypress@london.com
Letter to the editor
One of our staff writers has updated an article from our online blog indicating that Linda Gestrin is a City Commissioner in High Springs, Florida. I am not from the area and do not know much about the politics of High Springs but I am surprised that I can find nothing online about the actions of Linda Gestrin in a Pasco County Courtroom several years ago. Our research indicates that Gestrin has a brother named Ron Clark who was a pastor of a large church for many years in Tampa, Florida.
It appears to us that Linda Gestrin joined Belinda Clark, her former sister in law in making numerous claims of criminal wrongdoing about Gestrin’s brother, Ron Clark, a pastor of a large congregation in Tampa. It appeared our investigation of court records that Gestrin was the only witness to her brother alleged domestic battery against Belinda Clark. This accusation was eventually dropped by the judge, Linda Babb who heard the case. In addition, Belinda Clark alleged a more serious crime against her husband and witness only by his now estranged sister, Linda Gestrin in court testimony that her brother had stolen $400,000.00 from his now defunct Living Waters Church of Tampa. This accusation was also later dropped after a year –long investigation by the criminal division of the IRS brought on by the press coverage of the accusations in Family Court.
Belinda Clark lost a separate suit against the now defunct Living Waters Church, a 2000 member church that had a large church facility on 13 acres of prime Interstate 4 real estate in which she claimed half of the churches assets as her personal property. The Clarks originally founded the church about 16 years before with 12 people. Pastor Clark charged his wife was living in immorality and mentally unstable which compelled him to file for a divorce.
The divorce received wide spread attention but after a year in the press interest in the case diminished. We found it curious that Gestrin and Clark were then caught in an act we can only described as “suborning perjury” when they were caught “passing notes” to each other in order to know how the other had testified. Belinda Clark was convicted in a separate trial for “contempt of court, perjury” and both Clark and Gestrin’s testimony was struck. Belinda Clark was adjudicated guilty but with her husband asking for leniency for their children’s sake, had a yearlong sentence withheld. Gestrin was escorted from the courtroom by Bailiffs and told she could not testify again. Belinda Clark was escorted out of court with her boyfriend and not allowed to see the children for months. In addition, she gave up any claim for permanent alimony after 25 years. Alimony according to court records could have gone as high as $6,000.00 per month if it had been enforced.
It appears from our report that Pastor Clark eventually remarried several years after the divorce was final and was serving as the director of Asia for an international relief organization. Belinda Clark is living in Statesboro Georgia with the same man who was with her before her divorce and his sister, Linda Gestrin is your city commissioner. It seems like Mrs. Gestrin has gone on with her life without any of her prior difficulties following her. The church was destroyed by the divorce.
Why did Linda Gestrin turn on her brother and falsify these accusations against him? We do not know. Was her duplicity in her brother’s divorce brought up to the electorate in her commission election? We do not now, either. However, you might not have considered it in making your choice for city commissioner. I am sure that your community holds this type of non-sense in the same low regard that we do here.
If this incident is “old news” then let us know but if it were not, we would invite comment either here or on our blog on how does Linda Gestrin’s actions influences the community dialog concerning the quality of current elected officials.
Davis Johnson
Online Editor
trialbypress.com